Statistical Trend Analysis on Infant Mortality Rate and Estimation of Live Births in Nigeria
Asian Journal of Mathematics and Computer Research, Volume 30, Issue 1,
Particularly in nations like Nigeria, the likelihood that a child may pass away before turning one is rather distressing. Infant Mortality Rate is the term used to describe this. Ending all preventable deaths of children under the age of five is goal 3.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study's foundation is the statistical analysis of Nigeria's infant mortality rate. The secondary data was gathered from the World Bank Survey, which included annual records of the infant mortality rate in Nigeria over the ten-year period from 2012 to 2021. To assess the trend and estimate the model parameters, Time Series Analysis (TREND) was the statistical method employed. The researchers used the trend to predict for the following ten years. Both the number of infant fatalities and the infant mortality rate are moving decrease, according to the trend study. This demonstrates that the Infant Mortality Rate in Nigeria steadily decreases as the live birth rate rises, yet it is unlikely that it will reach zero or be insignificant by 2032. According to the analysis, the quadratic trend model fits the data sets the best because it has the smallest error margin and an R-square value that is extremely close to 100%. According to the model developed, Nigeria's infant mortality rate is expected to continue to drop throughout the course of the following ten years. Yet, the finding is not striking enough because, in 2031, the infant mortality rate will probably still be higher than 45. Hence, if appropriate measures are not implemented, we will not be able to achieve the goal of eliminating all preventable deaths of children under the age of five and lowering new birth deaths to no more than 12 per thousand. Also, it was seen from the table and graphs that the infant mortality rate decreased more rapidly from 2016 to 2017. This shows that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which went into effect in 2016, contributed to a decrease in the infant mortality rate.
- Sustainable development goals
- infant mortality rate
- quadratic trend model
- time series analysis
- model parameters
How to Cite
Phelps EB. A statistical study of infant mortality. Publ Am Stat Assoc. 1908;11(83):233-72.
Murphy SL, Kochanek KD, Xu JQ, Arias E. Mortality in the United States, NCHS data brief. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2020;427.
Adewuyi EO, Zhao Y, Lamichhane R. Risk factors for infant mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: evidence from the national household survey. Scand J Public Health. 2017;45(5):543-54.
Lamichhane R, Zhao Y, Paudel S, Adewuyi EO. Factors associated with infant mortality in Nepal: a comparative analysis of Nepal demographic and health surveys (NDHS) 2006 and 2011. BMC Public Health. 2017;17(1):53.
Osita KE, Kingsley EA, Michael JD, John JH, Andrew N. Risk factors for postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis. Global Health Research. 2015;5(3).
Shobiye DM, Omotola A, Zhao Y, Zhang J, Ekawati FM, Hezekiah OS. Infant mortality and risk factors in Nigeria in 2013-2017: A population-level study, Population Health; 2022.
Macrotrends. World infant mortality Rate, 1950-2023, Macrotrends; 2023.
World Health Organization. Millennium Development Goals, World Health Organization; 2018. Available: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/millennium-development-goals-(mdgs).
Aaron O. Infant mortality Rate in Nigeria, 1955-2020. Statista; 2022.
Adam H. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction, model, technical analysis; 2022.
Ali A, Ahmed A, Abdulmajid L. Statistical analysis on infant mortality Rate in Bauchi State, ATBU, Journal of Science. J Technol Educ (JOSTE). 2018;6(1).ISSN: 2277-0011
Anais DG. Autocorrelation in time series data, Influx data; 2019.
Croft TN, Marshall AMJ, Allen CK, et al. Neonatal mortality Rate (NNMR), postneonatal mortality Rate (PNMR), infant mortality Rate (IMR), child mortality Rate (CMR) (ages 1-4), under-5 mortality Rate (U5MR). Guide to DHS statistics, pg 8.5. Rockville, MD: IMB Community Foundation; 2018.
Doris DS. Infant mortality rate in Nigeria by gender. Statista; 2022.
Ekholuenetale M, Wegbom AI, Tudeme G, Onikan A. Household factors associated with infant and under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa countries. ICEP. 2020;14(1):10.
Gupta SC, Mathematical Models for Time Series. Fundamentals of statistics, seventh. Rev & enlarged Ed. 2013;11(5).
IGME, Child Mortality and Still Birth Estimates. Available: childmortality.org
Mariam S. Infant mortality Rate in Africa. Statista; 2000-2020.
Morakinyo OM, Fagbamigbe AF. Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013). Plos One. 2017;12(8):e0182990.
Ritvik R. Time series analysis, Kaggle. Available: https://www.kaggle.com/code/ritvik1909/time-series-analysis
Sefidkar R, Zayeri F, Kazemi E, Salehi M, Dehnad A, Hafizi MA. Trend study of preterm infant mortality Rate in developed and developing countries over 1990 to 2017. Iran J Public Health. 2021;50(2):369-75.
Ipurangi TKete. Seasonal component (for time-series data), NZ Maths.
Toppr, Components of Time Series.
Available: https://www.toppr.com/guides/business-mathematics-and-statistics/time-series-analysis/ components-of-time-series/
Abstract View: 53 times
PDF Download: 3 times